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How We Calculate Revenue Estimates

Our methodology for validating ideas and projecting realistic MRR scenarios.

1

The Revenue Formula

MRR = Realistic Reach × Conversion Rate × Price Point

We calculate Monthly Recurring Revenue by multiplying three key factors derived from market research and realistic assumptions.

2

Conservative Conversion Rates

We intentionally use conservative conversion rates to provide realistic expectations:

1%
Conservative Scenario

Worst-case: minimal marketing, slow word-of-mouth

3%
Realistic Scenario

Active marketing, good product-market fit

5%
Optimistic Scenario

Strong demand, viral growth, excellent positioning

Industry benchmarks often cite 2-5% as typical SaaS conversion rates. We err on the lower end to avoid over-promising.

3

Revenue Timeline

Our timeline projections assume a realistic ramp-up period:

MVP Launch

Based on estimated development effort (usually 2-4 weeks)

First Revenue

Typically 1 week after MVP to allow for launch marketing

Stable MRR

~12 weeks after first revenue to reach steady-state

4

Where the Data Comes From

Target Market & Reach

Estimated from subreddit sizes, forum activity, search volume, and comparable product user bases.

Price Point

Based on competitor pricing, perceived value, and target audience willingness to pay.

Market Signals

Sourced from Reddit discussions, indie hacker communities, and trend analysis.

!

Important Caveats

  • These are estimates, not guarantees. Actual results depend on execution, timing, and market conditions.
  • Revenue projections assume you can reach your target audience effectively.
  • One-time purchase prices are shown as-is; MRR potential assumes recurring customer acquisition.
  • These projections don't account for churn, refunds, or operational costs.
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